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Saturday, October 02, 2004
From our Files
Y'know sometimes I like to do a little e-mail .. as i am a little short today, here's a collection of correspondence between Damo and me from during the week. As i guess you know with e-mail, u start from the bottom and read up ..
From :
Sent :
Friday, 1 October 2004 12:05:21 PM
To :
damien.power@au.pinpoint.biz
Subject :
Re: Too Close to Call ?
you know, D, i feel exactly the same .. that Howard's been cracking the
whip out front on the same old nag for 5 weeks while Latham just gradually
reels him in on the back of a young thoroughbread with huge balls. To win
by a length say ? Or something like that ..
Ramsey, god bless him, dislikes Howard probably more than anyone (but as u
observe does also dish it out to clowns independent of their party colour (
he buried Crean )) but what has surprised me is how even in some of the
tabloids there has been an acknowledgement and even on occasion stinging
criticism of Howard's closing down sale, everything must go style .. i
don't watch the TV but i imagine that idea is being pushed by Latham et al
in the sound bites and is the sort of thing that is clear and readily
absorbed by the punters. "Hey, Howard is spending my money hand over fist.
Does he think he can buy my vote like he can buy the favours of his wife ?
I don't think so "
The whole interest rates thing i think may also run out of puff. Perhaps
Howard went too early with this. He is such a one trick pony.
And it will be my pleaure to assist with neutering PK Shaw and co.
P
Subject
Re: Too Close to Call ?
Perhaps Our Mark has a touch of destiny about him. He's certainly done
well in such a short space of time. I have also felt for the first time in
the last couple of weeks that he could actually win it. I also feel that
he grows stronger with every passing day while Howard starts to struggle
and seem increasingly strident.
There was another article today in the SMH by Alan Ramsey in which he
attacked the lavish spending promises trotted out these days by politicians
and contrasted it with the sincere and unflinchingly honest approach of Ben
Chifley (people can argue his faults and virtues but he was certainly the
most principled pollie Australia has had in the post-war era). Although
the article levels this charge at politicians in general, there is a
definite suggestion that Howard's current spree is dishonest and
irresponsible. Following on from the Gittins article, it does seem to
suggest time is running out for Howard (whether it runs out in time to give
Latham victory on Oct 9 is, of course, the question).
And if Latham does get in, I am giving you a solem task to complete. You
must write a passionate and arresting letter that will convince our new PM
to prevent thought-for-the day desk calendars featuring any more
'aphorisms' by those two utter gimps - P.K. Shaw and W.G.P (who wisely uses
only his initials to avoid identification). When they aren't being fatuous
or desperately unfunny, they are brazenly stealing the ideas of others and
paraphrasing them in a way that manages to strip the original of its charm
and insight.
cheers, d
peter.bright@immi
.gov.au To:
cc:
30/09/2004 07:10 Subject: Re: Too Close to Call ?
PM
Who knows .. at least they're a chance this time. I reckon i heard Antony
Green predict Labor would win this time within 10 Minutes of Howard
claiming victory last time .. if the sun shines next Saturday - Labor, if
it rains - the dogs will win ..
PM cc
Subject Too Close to Call ?
I wonder what Antony Green's track record is like ? It's going to be
close.
Howard wins this time, Latham next
September 30, 2004 - 5:10PM
John Howard will lose seats, win the election narrowly and announce his
retirement at the first sign of economic downturn.
Mark Latham will keep surging in popularity and lead Labor to victory - in
three years.
The Australian Greens will pick up some Senate seats on October 9, but not
enough to hold the balance of power. The Australian Democrats will join
One Nation - whose two founders are running as independents - in electoral
oblivion.
These are the predictions of ABC election analyst Antony Green, who gave
his only public speech before the October 9 federal poll today.
"My prediction would be that the government will get back with a loss of a
couple of seats," Mr Green told a lunch held by industry group Australian
Business Economists.
He agreed with bookies' predictions that the government would lose four
seats. Labor would need at least another 12 seats to win government in its
own right. But Mr Green said a returned Howard government would face a
"much rougher time", thanks partly to the $6 billion spending spree
unfurled by the prime minister at his campaign launch last weekend.
"The fact that they're prepared to spend so much of the Budget surplus at
the peak of the economic cycle suggests that they're building up
inflationary pressures," he said. "In the next term if the government does
win, they won't be able to blame many problems on the previous government.
It'll be their responsibility.
"And I suspect that the first sign of any downturn in the economy, the
prime minister will graciously announce his retirement."
Mr Latham, on the other hand, was enjoying unusually high popularity for an
opposition leader and would probably win the popular vote on October 9 -
although not necessarily the election.
"I think Labor have probably got a leader who will lead them definitely to
victory in three years' time if they lose this time," Mr Green said. "The
question is whether he's actually able to attract enough votes to win this
time."
Mr Green believed Labor would win about 51 per cent of the popular vote,
about one percentage point short of what it would need to win the election.
As for where the election would be won and lost, Mr Green said he would be
watching seats in the outer suburbs of Sydney and Brisbane on election
night.
Labor could win extra seats in Victoria and Darwin, but "they need to win
seats in Sydney and Queensland if they want to actually get into
government."
Mr Green said the Greens could win up to three extra Senate seats, but it
was virtually impossible it would give them the balance of power in their
own right.
"It (will be) the 2007 election before they really get into the position of
having the balance of power," he said.
And the Democrats?
"The Democrats will virtually disappear."
peter.bright@immi
.gov.au cc:
30/09/2004 05:19 PM
Noice v noice, Damo .. i'm not sure what the plans are yet for Friday but a
warm up costume run and accompanying beer might be all good ..
i might also try and put on a few years or breed a coupla kids so the two
major parties can give me something apart from more goddam roads ... it may
be a busy night .
P
From :
Sent :
Friday, 1 October 2004 12:05:21 PM
To :
damien.power@au.pinpoint.biz
Subject :
Re: Too Close to Call ?
you know, D, i feel exactly the same .. that Howard's been cracking the
whip out front on the same old nag for 5 weeks while Latham just gradually
reels him in on the back of a young thoroughbread with huge balls. To win
by a length say ? Or something like that ..
Ramsey, god bless him, dislikes Howard probably more than anyone (but as u
observe does also dish it out to clowns independent of their party colour (
he buried Crean )) but what has surprised me is how even in some of the
tabloids there has been an acknowledgement and even on occasion stinging
criticism of Howard's closing down sale, everything must go style .. i
don't watch the TV but i imagine that idea is being pushed by Latham et al
in the sound bites and is the sort of thing that is clear and readily
absorbed by the punters. "Hey, Howard is spending my money hand over fist.
Does he think he can buy my vote like he can buy the favours of his wife ?
I don't think so "
The whole interest rates thing i think may also run out of puff. Perhaps
Howard went too early with this. He is such a one trick pony.
And it will be my pleaure to assist with neutering PK Shaw and co.
P
Subject
Re: Too Close to Call ?
Perhaps Our Mark has a touch of destiny about him. He's certainly done
well in such a short space of time. I have also felt for the first time in
the last couple of weeks that he could actually win it. I also feel that
he grows stronger with every passing day while Howard starts to struggle
and seem increasingly strident.
There was another article today in the SMH by Alan Ramsey in which he
attacked the lavish spending promises trotted out these days by politicians
and contrasted it with the sincere and unflinchingly honest approach of Ben
Chifley (people can argue his faults and virtues but he was certainly the
most principled pollie Australia has had in the post-war era). Although
the article levels this charge at politicians in general, there is a
definite suggestion that Howard's current spree is dishonest and
irresponsible. Following on from the Gittins article, it does seem to
suggest time is running out for Howard (whether it runs out in time to give
Latham victory on Oct 9 is, of course, the question).
And if Latham does get in, I am giving you a solem task to complete. You
must write a passionate and arresting letter that will convince our new PM
to prevent thought-for-the day desk calendars featuring any more
'aphorisms' by those two utter gimps - P.K. Shaw and W.G.P (who wisely uses
only his initials to avoid identification). When they aren't being fatuous
or desperately unfunny, they are brazenly stealing the ideas of others and
paraphrasing them in a way that manages to strip the original of its charm
and insight.
cheers, d
peter.bright@immi
.gov.au To:
cc:
30/09/2004 07:10 Subject: Re: Too Close to Call ?
PM
Who knows .. at least they're a chance this time. I reckon i heard Antony
Green predict Labor would win this time within 10 Minutes of Howard
claiming victory last time .. if the sun shines next Saturday - Labor, if
it rains - the dogs will win ..
PM cc
Subject Too Close to Call ?
I wonder what Antony Green's track record is like ? It's going to be
close.
Howard wins this time, Latham next
September 30, 2004 - 5:10PM
John Howard will lose seats, win the election narrowly and announce his
retirement at the first sign of economic downturn.
Mark Latham will keep surging in popularity and lead Labor to victory - in
three years.
The Australian Greens will pick up some Senate seats on October 9, but not
enough to hold the balance of power. The Australian Democrats will join
One Nation - whose two founders are running as independents - in electoral
oblivion.
These are the predictions of ABC election analyst Antony Green, who gave
his only public speech before the October 9 federal poll today.
"My prediction would be that the government will get back with a loss of a
couple of seats," Mr Green told a lunch held by industry group Australian
Business Economists.
He agreed with bookies' predictions that the government would lose four
seats. Labor would need at least another 12 seats to win government in its
own right. But Mr Green said a returned Howard government would face a
"much rougher time", thanks partly to the $6 billion spending spree
unfurled by the prime minister at his campaign launch last weekend.
"The fact that they're prepared to spend so much of the Budget surplus at
the peak of the economic cycle suggests that they're building up
inflationary pressures," he said. "In the next term if the government does
win, they won't be able to blame many problems on the previous government.
It'll be their responsibility.
"And I suspect that the first sign of any downturn in the economy, the
prime minister will graciously announce his retirement."
Mr Latham, on the other hand, was enjoying unusually high popularity for an
opposition leader and would probably win the popular vote on October 9 -
although not necessarily the election.
"I think Labor have probably got a leader who will lead them definitely to
victory in three years' time if they lose this time," Mr Green said. "The
question is whether he's actually able to attract enough votes to win this
time."
Mr Green believed Labor would win about 51 per cent of the popular vote,
about one percentage point short of what it would need to win the election.
As for where the election would be won and lost, Mr Green said he would be
watching seats in the outer suburbs of Sydney and Brisbane on election
night.
Labor could win extra seats in Victoria and Darwin, but "they need to win
seats in Sydney and Queensland if they want to actually get into
government."
Mr Green said the Greens could win up to three extra Senate seats, but it
was virtually impossible it would give them the balance of power in their
own right.
"It (will be) the 2007 election before they really get into the position of
having the balance of power," he said.
And the Democrats?
"The Democrats will virtually disappear."
peter.bright@immi
.gov.au cc:
30/09/2004 05:19 PM
Noice v noice, Damo .. i'm not sure what the plans are yet for Friday but a
warm up costume run and accompanying beer might be all good ..
i might also try and put on a few years or breed a coupla kids so the two
major parties can give me something apart from more goddam roads ... it may
be a busy night .
P
